Anderson and Braves agree to one year deal

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090222&content_id=3865664&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl

Frank is making it hard for me to stay neutral and even keel here.   Simplistically, the Braves had two goals this off season: shore up the starting pitching and add power to the outfield.  Its been an up and down season for the Braves both on the trade front and free agency, I’ll speak more to that in a separate post, and Wren has taken a beating from the press and from fans.  As the market dried and the Braves spent, it became evident that the only real move would be to sign the dregs or go with what the team had and take a different approach.

Apparently, the Braves chose to sign the dregs.  This is such a terrible move.  How terrible?  I guess it depends on your point of view.

Its terrible in that Anderson’s 758 OBP last year was better than any Braves outfielder except for Josh Anderson in 146 PAs and Mark Kotsay in 346PAs.  Omar Infante and Greg Norton had higher OPS, but Norton was really a pinch hitter with some field time and I’m not willing to call Infante an outfielder.

Its terrible that out of all the available choices, the Braves land Anderson, while for just 2.5 million more, the Angels got Abreu.

Its terrible that the Braves appear to have had no direction with their goal of signing an outfielder.  If they wanted to focus on power, they had lots of opportunity to do so.  If they wanted to focus on defense, there were plenty of options.  If they wanted to just make a move for the sake of making a move?   Mission accomplished.

From 2000 – 2003, Garret Anderson was at once overrated by the general public and underrated by the stats crowd.  He provided a lot of contact with decent power and low OBP.   During that time frame he had over 800 OPS three times, going over 870 twice.  Since then, Anderson has averaged an OPS of 770.

As mediocre as all that sounds, the real problem is that it didn’t significantly address any of the actual outfield needs.  Needs:

Power:  Currently the Braves have none.  Even assuming a bounce back from Francouer its still light in the outfield.  Bringing in a 37 year old who hasn’t had a 500 SLG since 2003 isn’t going to do the trick.

Defense: If the Braves were to decide to not add in power, then we would have to assume they would go for defense.  The Braves outfield defense isn’t all that horrible.  Frenchy had a very bad year defensively, but its unlikely he’s really that bad considering what he did the three years previous and given his young age.  Blanco and Anderson cover a lot of ground and while neither has a strong arm, they can catch a lot of fly balls.  Brandon Jones and Matt Diaz might not be pretty, but they aren’t embarassing and they play left field.  So if defense was what they were after, they would have needed to add a “Glove Man”.

Body:  If the Braves just wanted to put a Body in left field, they succeeded.  Of course they already had that option for free, so I’m not sure what bringing in Anderson has to do with anything.

I’m not saying I’m excited about Diaz/Jones in left, Frenchy in Right, and either Blanco or Anderson in CF, but I’m more excited by that than I am by anything Anderson has to offer.  In my opinion, if Anderson was the only available option, the Braves should have punted and gone with what they already had.

Tommy Boy

No, not this ONE; this ONE.

One more signing for the blogosphere to fall apart over.  I think the main complaint over this one is the waste of a roster spot.  I don’t know what it is about sitting in front of a computer that turns rational thinking people (at least I like to think they are rational somewhere in their life) into a nasty spinster aunt whose sole purpose is to bitch and complain.  Maybe its the anonymity?  Maybe its the best way to get lots of comments and create your own little delusional community?  I don’t know and I guess I shouldn’t care, but for some reason I do.  Look, I don’t want to tell you how to be a fan.  We all do it in our own way.  Some of us gush and get all a flutter with every move, knowing that each one is going to bring the next championship, while others bemoan every move made as waste and every move missed as the HUGE one that got away.

Sometimes a move is just a move.  The signing of Tom Glavine is not going to make or break the Braves, so just relax.

Glavine had a horrible year last year.  He was injured for the first time, made the least amount of starts in his career and never looked like he had even an ounce of stuff left.  Everyone’s already said it. He’s done.

I think for the most part, everyone is right.  The last year of data for a pitcher that old is usually pretty indicative of what they have left in the tank.  Indications are that Tom stank.  A lot.

But.  Its Tommy, the money is nominal, the pitching staff is actually fairly strong otherwise, and he will only marginally be used.  His value will mostly be tied into anything he is able to impart on the younger pitchers and his occasional spelling of a starter.  I’d be interested in seeing him work some innings in middle relief.  It would be fun to sandwich him between Moylan and Soriano sometimes, I don’t know how effective it would be, but it sure would throw three totally different approaches and angles at the hitters and from my couch, with a beer in my hand, that sounds like fun.

Maybe Tom has an all out last year.  Maybe he makes 30 starts for the 18th time in his career.  Maybe he pitches 5 – 6 innings per start and carries an ERA in the low 4s with not very many strikeouts and a whole lot of luck.

One thing you can count on: if he comes out and sucks, he won’t stay on the roster for long.  No one, not the Braves, not Glavine, want to see him suffer.  There were injuries last year to blame, but this year he is supposedly healthy and ready to go.  If he shows that he doesn’t have anything left, the Braves and Glavine will reach an agreement to let him retire and call it a day.

You can call that wasted time, you can call it nostalgia, you can call it hope.  Whatever you want to call it, it isn’t much in the long run except one more chance to say good bye.

Good Luck Tom.

PECOTA

BP has its PECOTA forecasts out.  They have the Braves and Phils in a virtual tie for second place behind the Mets.  Take them with a grain of salt, but its interesting none the less.  The link below is for their subscription service.  Fork up the spare change and read away…

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8528

Who Loves Links?

I DO!

Say hey Griffey – Griffey finally made up his mind late last night and chose the Mariners over the Braves.  I guess I’m disappointed?  I don’t really know honestly.  My first thought when I heard the deal was possible and that Griffey said he’d “Always wanted to play for Bobby Cox”, was that everyone always says they want to play for Bobby.  Problem is, the only time it seems possible is when they are far past their prime and willing to play for low dollars.

As the deal, and Griffey’s indecisiveness, wore on, I started to warm up the idea of having Griffey on the team.  He wouldn’t improve our defense any, but he still mashes righties, and even in limited playing time last year, hit more home runs that any other outfielder we have on the roster.  But by late last night, with no word still, I returned to my feelings of ambivalence.  The Braves have mostly been a bargaining tool for free agents this year and Griffey wasn’t going to put the Braves over the top anyway.

Keith Law hates the move for the Mariners.

While the guys over at USS Mariner are surprised at that their happiness.  Shows how much Keith knows…

Chipper Negotiations – Looks like they are looking at a long term contract to keep Chipper on the team until he retires.  Not really much to comment on since there aren’t any details.  Chipper says he can be “as productive at 40 as I am right now.”  Maybe, but there isn’t much evidence to show its very likely.  I love Chipper as much as the next guy, and I want to see him finish up as a Brave if at all possible.  Sometimes a team just has to take a hit in order to make it happen, but, and I know I’ll piss off a lot of people, but the player has to want it to happen, too.  Everyone talks about the paltry difference between the Sox offer for Smoltz and the Braves offer for Smoltz and why couldn’t the Braves just step up, but conversely, if John really wanted to finish as a Brave, he could have taken the offer as easily as the Braves could have upped the money.  I’m not faulting anyone for their decision, but its not as one sided as everyone likes to make it out to be.

Chipper makes over 12 million dollars a year and he gets that while having 600 PAs just once in the last 4 years.  While last year was great, he actually had 64 PAs less and 2 win shares less than the year before (Data from The Hardball Times).  I’m not saying don’t sign him, I’m not saying don’t pay him fairly, I’m just saying realize what you’re getting before you get all Fanboy about it.

Francoeur and Johnson avoid arbitration:  Straightforward stuff.  I’m glad to see The Braves avoid arbitration with Frenchy.  He’s not going anywhere anytime soon and the process is demoralizing to say the least.

Jeff Francoeur, meet Mark Twain

“The Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”

One of Mark Twain’s more famous and incorrectly quoted phrases applies pretty well to Jeff Francoeur.  If I were to believe everything I’ve seen written about Frenchy I would think he was a stubborn, less than bright, ego maniac with the bat of a 9 year old girl (no offense to 9 year old girls, I’m sure many of you display more gap power than I ever did).

I can’t speak to Jeff’s intelligence, ego, or tenacity.  I’m not alone in that arena, though apparently having any knowledge of such things doesn’t stop snarky bloggers from having all sorts of outlandish boring commentary.

Take a deep breath everyone and relax.

I’m going to use a quote from another blogger.  He writes for a highly successful baseball blog, and has pieces published for biggies like ESPN, BP, etc.  You name it, and he’s probably written or contributed to them.  He’s not a scout, but I trust his analysis of players as if he were.  He’s not just a stats geek (though he is one of those).  He’s probably been to more minor league games and seen more players than any of us could ever hope to.  And he’s a good guy.  Why won’t I name him?  Because the quote came from casual conversation, I haven’t asked his approval, and I don’t want to name drop.  You can choose to trust me or not, its up to you.

People way overreact to the most recent season performance.  Would the Braves have considered trading Francoeur for Cliff Lee a year ago?  Obviously not.  The idea that one season’s worth of performance should be enough to completely change our opinion on players (short of a massive injury) is just a fallacy.

I couldn’t agree with him more.  If anything, last year showed us a young player, who is maddeningly inconsistent who frustrates even more because of his potential upside.  That’s our problem to work through, not his, your vitriol is wasted and you’d probably be better served taking that same energy and going outside, instead of sitting in front of your computer snickering to yourself that you just burned Jeff Francoeur.  1000 positive comments to your post doesn’t make it right, it just means 1001 people are wrong, and really excited about it.

Francoeur was 24 last year and had his worst major league season.  He tinkered endlessly with his stance, saw a significant drop in hits, home runs, obp, slugging, just about everything really.  He sat out a game for the first time in his career and even spent all of four days playing for double A Mississippi.  All of this after his year 23 season in which he made some great strides.  EVERYONE had him pegged for a break out year.

You might think I’m crazy, but for me, the most important item in that last paragraph is that Frenchy was only 24, and for that reason alone everyone should chill out.  Is last season concerning?  Certainly.  Is it the end of the world?  Not at all.  Seriously guys, all of you out there that actually think the Braves would be better off just releasing him, or trading him for fodder need to get another hobby, this one is stressing you out way too much.

Not only is Jeff a mere 25 this year, but the following GOOD things happened last year:

He maintained the increase in his walk rate that he showed between 2006 and 2007.

His line drive pct on balls put in play was 20.7%, his highest yet as a major leaguer.  If you are unfamiliar with this stat, click on over to The Hardball Times and read their explanation.  Basically it tells you how often they hit the ball with authority.  He ranks in the top 20 in LD% in 2008.

His BABIP was 274, absurdly low and more likely than not to increase towards the mean.

His K rate dropped from 18% to 16%.  Strikeouts don’t bother me, but at the same time a ridiculous amount of them coupled with a lousy walk rate says a lot about zone control, and while Jeff has a lot of work to do in that arena, he has made incremental improvements.

Francoeur also had a conditioning program last year that added 20 lbs of muscle to his frame.  Instead of adding any power, it appeared to decrease his mobility and caused him to lose a step in the field and on the basepaths.

Jeff is coming in lighter this year, and by all accounts in great condition (lost the bulk from the year prior) and focusing on erasing last year.  What all the data (and my eyes) show me, is a player with good bat speed and decent power, with a horrible approach at the plate.  From what I’ve read, his approach is vague, coming from the ‘See the ball, hit the ball” school of thought.  He needs to have a plan and realize that the pitchers have a plan when they are facing him, he should be actively working to counteract that plan.  That’s the mental part of the game, and its an adjustment he hasn’t yet proven he can make.  This would be a great year to show that he can.

He might be “The Natural”, but he absolutely has the skill set to be an authority in RF and in the line up.  Hopefully he learned from last year and can show he is not the albatross my blog brethren would have you believe he is.

Fear and Loathing

I don’t know why I do this.  Every year I say its not going to happen, yet somehow, it does.

Spring Training.

What’s so bad about Spring Training you ask?  How could I possibly not want to be involved in the anual tradition that starts my favorite pastime?  Who wouldn’t want to spend time in small cozy stadiums drinking beer, talking to players and generally having a fantastic time?

One answer to all those questions:  The BraveSoxTalk guys – Matt and Alan.

That’s who I’ll be attending the games with.  I’d send you a link to their rundown from the last time we all went, but they stopped paying their bills and their website has been shutdown.  Coincidentally, their accounts have been frozen and men in dark suits keep knocking on my door asking questions about them that I just can’t answer.

What I can tell you is that I learned some very basic and important facts from my trips to FL with them:

• No amount of boyish charm can easily explain why you’ve broken every lamp, mirror and TV in the room playing Hotel Baseball.
• Maria Sharipova is not interested in meeting any of us. Ever.
• Blood does not come out of hotel room walls or carpet.

So if its so damn bad, why am I going?  Some might say I’m a glutton for punishment.  Some might say I’m a bit of a fanboy.  They’re probably right on both accounts, because when it comes down to it; I’d rather follow two suspected felons on their way to eventual disaster than sit around at home watching the WBC on TV.

Watch out Florida, you are officially Effed.