Someone get me my gold tooth…

Pascual the Predictor is back! He’s got an 8 ball, his driver’s license, and an abandoned bus to take us home.

I have a lot of fun with Pascual. He doesn’t have a fancy name and he’s certainly no monkey, but he’s entertaining in his own way. I mean really, who would YOU rather hang out with?

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I’ve been tweaking the system to see if I can instill a little more accuracy. Looking through Last years numbers, we were all over the place. Pascual was way off on Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones, but dead on with Kelly Johnson and Matt Diaz. As far as the Pitchers, we had the peripheral stats for Hudson and Smoltz but totally blew it with the relievers.

I’m going to post Kelly, Matt and Chipper today, throughout the next few weeks I will post everyone else as well. Let me know what you think or if you have anything to add.

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Matt Diaz	413	384	50	123	22	3	11	49	6	3	19	67	.320	.360	.481
Chipper Jones	561	482	96	154	36	3	27	94	6	1	75	78	.319	.410	.574
Kelly Johnson	444	384	65	104	20	6	12	51	6	3	55	83	.271	.366	.450

Couple of things. Matt Diaz is crazy consistent. At least in the form the Braves have employed prior to 2008. I feel very confident that if Cox continues to use Matty as the righty half of a platoon that we will see numbers very close to what Pascual has predicted. He’s currently crushing Lefties to the tune of a 1.079 OPS. Unfortunately he’s only had 38 ABs against Lefties, while compiling 50 against Righties. Right handed pitchers own Diaz thus far, allowing him a measly .412 OPS. I’m sure of two things – Matty’s lost any opportunity he had to prove himself against Righties for 2008. He’ll still get a few ABS here and there, but as long as he’s a Brave, he’s a platoon. I don’t know if 50 times at the plate is a fair opportunity, but I also see where Cox is coming from. I’m also sure that Matt won’t continue to own such a pronounced platoon split. Expect to see the numbers against the Lefties regress more towards the mean and settle in right around what Pascual thinks they will be. What I”m not sure of is whether or not Diaz will actually take an unintentional walk this year. Zero and accounting so far.

Pascual thinks Chipper will miss more plate appearances than he did last year, and that his average will “drop” down all the way to .319. I hope he manages to pull off more time at the plate, but early season indicators are that Chipper is still prone to nagging injuries, some of which are more concerning than others.

You can bet that Kelly will out perform that line. Pascual’s not sure what to do with Kelly’s missed time in 2006 due to the TJ surgery and that’s led to lower than expected plate appearances as well as an under performance in regards to batting average. I’ve learned not to go in and screw around with the numbers and just let them be, so we will see how it all pans out. Its worth noting that Kelly has had some knee issues that have caused him to miss time, and Cox does like to rest him at times to help him iron out his swing, but its still a more reasonable bet to assume closer to 550 PA and a batting average closer to .300.

That’s it for today, enjoy the game tonight!